中国实现碳中和:进程评估与实践困境

    China′s Achievement of Carbon Neutrality: Process Evaluation and Practical Challenges

    • 摘要: 中国实现碳中和目标面临经济结构转型与能源结构调整等严峻挑战。根据2020年中国30个省市自治区的能源消费数据与土地利用数据核算得到其CO2排放量与吸收量,对碳中和进程进行评估。研究认为,2020年中国30个省市自治区平均碳中和进程为5.45%,区域碳中和进程差异较大,呈现出“阶梯状”特征;其中9个高碳中和进程型省市自治区平均碳中和进程为16.66%,而11个低碳中和进程型省市自治区平均进程仅为1.32%。目前,中国实现碳中和面临碳赤字严重、碳汇量缩减以及区域协同不足的实践困境,应根据区域CO2排放与吸收特征,由经济与科研水平具有比较优势的省市自治区研发新型低碳技术,通过区域内部产业承接转移实现结构性减排,同时完善碳汇自然资源价值实现机制推进增汇,配合国家重大区域战略实现区域协同的碳中和。

       

      Abstract: China strives to achieve carbon neutrality goals before 2060, but in practice, it will face severe challenges such as economic restructuring and energy structure adjustment. Based on the energy consumption data and land use data of 30 provinces in China in 2020, their CO2 emissions and absorption are calculated to evaluate the carbon neutrality process. Research suggests that the overall carbon neutrality process in China in 2020 is 5.45%, with significant regional differences in carbon neutrality processes, exhibiting a "stepped" characteristic; The average carbon neutrality process in 9 high carbon neutrality provinces is 16.66%, while in 11 low-carbon neutrality provinces, it is only 1.32%; At present, China is facing practical challences in achieving carbon neutrality, such as severe carbon deficits, shrinking carbon sinks, and insufficient regional coordination. China achieving carbon neutrality should consider regional CO2 emission and absorption characteristics, and develop new low-carbon technologies in regions with comparative advantages in economy and scientific research. Then, CO2 emission reduction should be achieved through regional industrial transfer. At the same time, the mechanism for realizing the value of carbon sink resources should be improved to promote CO2 absorption. Combined with China′s major regional strategies, the regional coordination for carbon neutrality should be achieved.

       

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