“双碳”目标再解析: 概念、挑战和机遇

    "Double Carbon" Goals Revisited: Concepts, Challenges and Opportunities

    • 摘要: 碳达峰是一个多峰突起、波动下降的阶段性特征,并非必然是碳中和的表征。中国实现碳中和只能是高碳化石能源的有序减退和零碳可再生能源的持续快速攀升,使得以可再生能源为主体的非化石能源在能源消费结构中占比超过80 %;零碳能源的革命性突破和生产革命,可推动就业增长、安全环境等可持续发展目标的实现,而且零碳能源的消费革命,可提升民生福祉,促使区域协同和发展范式的升级;同时,碳移除的净零碳路径所带来的经济社会发展动能较弱,潜在风险较大,只可起到辅助作用。中国实现“双碳”目标需要摒弃碳思维,充分释放零碳转型的增长动能,多路径优化集成,才能行稳致远,迈向碳中和。

       

      Abstract: Peak carbon is a phased feature of multiple peaks and fluctuating declines, and is not necessarily a sign of carbon neutrality. China can only achieve carbon neutrality through the orderly decline of high-carbon fossil energy sources and the rapid continuous rise of zero-carbon renewable energy sources, so that non-fossil energy sources, mainly renewable energy sources, will account for more than 80% of the energy consumption structure, which must lead to a revolutionary breakthrough in zero-carbon energy sources, including a revolution in the production of zero-carbon energy sources, and that the goals of sustainable development, such as employment, growth, security, and the environment, will be realized. This revolutionary breakthrough in zero-carbon energy, including a zero-carbon energy production revolution, will promote employment, growth, security, the environment, and help to realize other sustainable development goals; thus a zero-carbon energy consumption revolution can enhance people's well-being, regional synergy and upgrade the development paradigm. At the same time, the net-zero carbon path of carbon removal will bring about a weaker economic and social development, with a greater potential risk, and can only play a supporting role. To achieve the "double carbon" goals, China needs to abandon her carbon thinking habit, fully release the growth momentum of zero-carbon transformation, and optimize the integration of multiple pathways in order to move steadily towards carbon neutrality.

       

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