人工智能技术进步对高技术制造业就业结构的影响路径研究

    Research on the Impact Path of Artificial Intelligence Technology Progress on the Employment Structure of High-tech Manufacturing Industry

    • 摘要: 从偏向型技术进步理论视角,探究人工智能技术进步的多因素组态效应对高技术制造业就业结构的影响路径及机制。采用定性与定量相结合的混合研究设计,以2018—2020年中国30个省份数据集为样本进行了fsQCA实证分析。研究发现:(1)高技术制造业就业结构变化的前置因素存在组态效应,且人工智能相关产业投入、工业机器人投入、产业转型升级、制造业智能化水平、适龄劳动力占比、劳动力受教育程度均非单独的必要条件;(2)存在4条驱动高技术制造业劳动力占比增加的路径,包含产业转型-人才素质型、产业智能-人口红利型、机器替代-人才稀缺型、机器智能-人口红利型;(3)制造业智能化水平、制造业转型升级程度、适龄劳动力人口占比,以及制造业智能化水平、劳动力受教育程度是促进高技术制造业劳动力占比增加的两类核心条件组合。为推动偏向型技术进步从单一视角向多维视角的转变奠定了基础,也为地区管理部门投入人工智能促进高技术制造业健康发展提供了实践启示。

       

      Abstract: Based on the theory of biased technological change, this paper explores the influence paths and mechanisms of the multi-factor configuration effects of artificial intelligence technology on the employment structure of the high-tech manufacturing industry. Adopting a mixed research design that combines qualitative and quantitative methods, the authors conducted an empirical analysis using fsQCA on a dataset of 30 provinces from 2018 to 2020. The results show that: (1) There are configuration effects of the antecedent factors of the high-tech manufacturing employment structure change, and none of the factors such as artificial Intelligence-related industry input, industrial robot input, industrial transformation and upgrading, industrial intelligence, working-age population ratio, and regional labor force education level are necessary conditions alone; (2) There are four paths that drive the increase of high-tech manufacturing labor force ratio, including industrial transformation-talent quality type, industrial intelligence-population dividend type, machine substitution-talent scarcity type, and machine intelligence-population dividend type; (3) The combination of manufacturing intelligence level, manufacturing transformation and upgrading degree, and Working-age population ratio, manufacturing intelligence level and labor force education level are the two core conditions that promote the increase of high-tech manufacturing labor force ratio. This study lays a foundation for promoting the transformation of biased technological change from a single perspective to a multidimensional perspective, and provides practical implications for regional management departments to invest in artificial intelligence to achieve healthy development of high-tech manufacturing.

       

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