中国实现碳中和:降碳风险的识别与应对

    Achieving China's Carbon Neutrality Target: Decarbonization Risk Identification and Countermeasure Design

    • 摘要: 中国实现碳中和目标必将引发能源利用模式的深度变革,重塑各领域生产生活方式既是一场系统性变革,也面临微观与宏观的转型风险。从系统视角阐释中国零碳转型过程中降碳风险及其风险的系统传导机制,并基于低碳/零碳/负碳技术创新及转化的“研发—应用—推广”的阶段过程,解析了零碳转型过程中风险因素的传导路径;指出技术成熟度、产品绿色溢价、资产沉没成本、技术应用及供应链保障五类主要降碳风险,评估其对中国碳中和目标实现和社会经济发展的影响。提出中国需从系统视角慎重把握目标实现过程中的降碳风险,从政策引领、监测核算、科技人才、创新环境、国际合作等多方面共同发力和协同推进,全局把控设计应对政策措施,应深入实施低碳技术领跑者政策、加强碳排放核算与碳减排风险评估、积极培育壮大低碳技术研发力量、营造有利于低碳创新的社会环境。

       

      Abstract: The realization of China's carbon neutrality goal will systematically reshape the energy utilization pattern in the whole society, and will face great risks from both the micro and macro perspectives. Thus it is necessary to identify the decarbonization risks and understand its conduction mechanism during the whole process. In this paper, a three-stage framework consists of "R&D-application-promotion" is constructed for the innovation and transformation of low-carbon/zero-carbon/negative-carbon technologies to analyze the conduction path from the whole system. According to the results, five categories are identified including the maturity of technology, green premium of products, sinking cost of assets, application of technology and security of supply chain. On this basis, the potential impacts of these risks on China are evaluated from a global scale. It is proposed that China should carefully grasp the risk of carbon reduction in the process of achieving the carbon neutrality goal from a systematic perspective, and jointly promote from five main aspects including policy guiding, carbon monitoring and accounting, scientific and technological talents fostering, innovation environment cultivating, international cooperating. At last, suggestions are provided for the policymaking in dealing with the systematic decarbonization risks in China's net-zero emissions transition.

       

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