财政透明、支出进度与预算执行紧缩

    Fiscal Transparency, Expenditure Progress, and Budget Execution Tightening

    • 摘要: 聚焦财政制度和财政运行,研究财政透明和支出进度对地方一般公共预算执行紧缩的影响,通过典型事实建立了财政透明到预算执行紧缩的机制分析框架,并采用面板联立方程和三阶段二乘法对2013—2020年的省级数据进行了实证分析。研究发现:(1)地方一般公共预算执行紧缩均值约为实际财政支出的10%左右,各地方差别很大但均值全部为正;(2)财政透明度对预算执行紧缩都有显著的缓解作用,直接影响主要是发生在欠发达地区;(3)财政透明度提高会直接推进预算支出执行进度,并通过支出进度进一步缓和预算执行紧缩,支出进度是财政透明缓和预算执行紧缩的有效正向中介机制;(4)通过增加联立方程控制财政透明内生性后,财政透明度对预算执行紧缩的间接效应超过直接效应。提出相关部门应大力推进财政透明,持续提高地方政府信息公开力度,尤其是提高一般公共预算在内的财政信息公开,有助于让周期性财政政策和赤字规模更加可控,让积极财政政策真正名实相符,实现财政提质增效和经济高质量发展。

       

      Abstract: Budget execution tightening reduces the deficit level of local governments due to budget execution, offsetting the effects of active fiscal policies. This paper focuses on the fiscal system and fiscal operation, studies the impacts of fiscal transparency and expenditure progress on the tightening of local public finance, by introducing a framework from fiscal transparency to budget tightening based on typical facts, and empirical analyses provincial data from 2013 to 2020 by using panel simultaneous equation model and three-stage square method. We found that: (1) the average execution tightening effect of local public finance is about 10% of actual fiscal expenditure, It varies a lot from place to place but the average effects are all positive. (2) Fiscal transparency has significant mitigating effect on budget tightening, with direct impacts mainly occurring in underdeveloped regions. (3) Improving fiscal transparency will directly promote expenditure progress and further alleviate budget tightening through expenditure progress. Expenditure progress is an effective positive intermediary mechanism for fiscal transparency to alleviate budget tightening. (4) After controlling the endogeneity of fiscal transparency, the indirect effect exceeds the direct effect. For policy, we believe that promoting fiscal transparency and the informational transparency of the local government, especially the disclosure of fiscal information of local general public budgets. This will be helpful to make cyclical fiscal policies and to control deficit sizes, make proactive fiscal policies truly work, and to prompte high-quality and efficient economic development.

       

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