总体应急预案的府际差异与量化评价——基于29个省级预案文本的比较分析

    Differences and Quantitative Evaluation of Intergovernmental Overall Emergency Plans——Comparative Analysis Based on the Texts of 29 Provincial Plans

    • 摘要: 省级突发事件总体应急预案在属地管理的应急管理体系下呈现出横向府际差异,这一差异是否衍生了预案文本的质量差异是需要回应的研究议题。以29个省份的突发事件总体应急预案为例,通过文本分析法构建应急预案的量化评价体系,并测算各个省份应急预案文本的PMC指数,从预案整体和成分质量、等级差异、时间差异3个维度对省级突发事件总体应急预案质量评估结果进行了分析。研究发现,省级突发事件总体应急预案整体质量良好,但横向省际间预案文本的内容差异形成了省际间预案文本的质量差异;省级突发事件总体应急预案在预案适用和预案体系等成分方面具有较高的质量,但在预案管理和组织指挥成分方面的文本质量相对较低;新冠疫情后印发或修订的应急预案质量比疫情前印发的预案质量高,但在应急资源保障方面有所弱化。因此,要通过府际间政策学习优化各省突发事件总体应急预案;重视应急预案体系顶层设计中的预案管理;“简化”而非“减化”应急预案中对于辅助性应急资源保障的安排。

       

      Abstract: The overall emergency plan made by each province for its territorial emergencies presents horizontal intergovernmental differences under the territorial emergency management system. Whether this difference leads to the quality difference of the plan text is a research topic that needs to be answered. Taking the overall emergency plans of 29 provinces as an example, the quantitative evaluation system of emergency plans is constructed by text analysis, and the PMC index of emergency plans of each province is calculated. The quality evaluation results of provincial emergency plans are analyzed from three dimensions: overall and component quality, grade difference, and time difference. It is found that the overall quality of the provincial emergency response plan is good, but the differences in the content and structure of the provincial emergency response plan text form its differences in the quality. The provincial emergency plan has high quality in its application and system, but the text quality in its management and organization and command is relatively low. The quality of the emergency plan issued or revised after the epidemic in COVID-19 is higher than those issued before the epidemic, but it is weakened in terms of emergency resource guarantee. Thus, it is necessary to optimize the overall emergency plan of each province through intergovernmental policy study; pay attention to the plan management in the top-level design of the emergency plan system; "simplify" rather than "reduce" the description of auxiliary emergency resource guarantee in the emergency plan.

       

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