中美人工智能技术创新的动态比较——基于人工智能技术创新大数据的多S曲线模型分析

    Dynamic Comparison of Artificial Intelligence Technology Innovation Between China and America——Analysis of Multi-S Curve Model Based on Big Data of Artificial Intelligence Technology Innovation

    • 摘要: 基于基础研究、技术创新、科技布局、产业规模与技术进步5个维度人工智能技术创新大数据,创新性地构建了人工智能技术创新发展水平多指标测度体系及技术创新综合发展指数;根据技术创新综合发展指数,拟合绘制出人工智能技术创新周期S演化曲线,较为准确定位了中美人工智能技术创新发展所处位置;由5个维度在技术不同发展阶段的权重分布动态,比较出中美新技术之间的创新发展差距,分析影响中国人工智能新技术创新发展的主要因素。研究发现,美国日本等世界主要发达国家的人工智能技术已步入创新成熟期,中国正处于创新成长期后期,技术创新十分活跃;借助于后发优势,中国人工智能技术创新逐年综合发展指数已超过美国,展现出非常强劲的增长态势。为赢得未来人工智能技术创新竞争的胜利,中国应在人工智能技术创新体制和技术创新资源配置机制等方面不断完善,确保中国人工智能技术创新中长期的领先地位。

       

      Abstract: This study has firstly innovatively constructed a multi-index measurement system of artificial intelligence technology innovation level and a comprehensive development index of artificial intelligence technology innovation from five dimensions: basic research, technological innovation, technological layout, industrial scale and technological progress based on the big data of artificial intelligence technology innovation; and then according to the comprehensive development index of technology innovation, the S evolution curve of artificial intelligence technology innovation cycle of each country has been fitted, and the more correct orientation of artificial intelligence technology innovation of both China and the United States has been acquired. Secondly, the innovation gap between China and the United States is compared objectively and dynamically through combining the dynamic weight distribution of five dimensions in different development stages of technology, and the main factors affecting the innovation of artificial intelligence new technology in China are discussed and summarized. The study finds that the new artificial intelligence technology of major developed countries such as the United States, Japan and so on has stepped into a mature stage at present and Chinese one is at the post period of growth stage. With the help of latecomer advantage, the comprehensive development index of Chinese artificial intelligence technology innovation has exceeded the United States year by year, and shows a very strong growth trend. In order to win the victory of artificial intelligence technology innovation competition, China should improve artificial intelligence technology innovation system and technology innovation resources allocation mechanism continuously, give full play to the initiative of all parties, enhance the ability of technology self-dependent innovation, and ensure her medium- and long-term leading position in artificial intelligence technology innovation competition.

       

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