“双碳”目标下的低碳试点效果再评估

    Re-evaluation of Low-carbon Pilot Project Effects Towards the Goals of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality

    • 摘要: 中国作为探索和实践“双碳”目标的“先锋”,低碳试点的先试先行为其低碳转型作出了有力探索。既有研究大多肯定了低碳试点的积极成效,但部分研究也指出了低碳试点存在的困境。在低碳试点陆续结束和中国迈向“双碳”目标之际,对低碳试点的低碳状态和减排趋势进行再评估。研究结果表明,三批低碳试点的效果可能并没有大多评估研究认为的乐观,低碳试点整体上尚未达到和形成显著的低碳状态和减排趋势。仅有2010和2012年开始的第一、二批低碳试点显现出碳减排的趋势,但其依然未进入低碳的状态;2017年开始的第三批低碳试点在减排趋势和低碳状态上均未显现出显著的效果。在政策试验阶段,低碳试点缺乏上位法律、总体规划和核算体系的指导以及相容的激励机制,这对其维系低碳发展效果产生了挑战。在迈向“双碳”目标阶段,国家层面需要加强制度安排的指导性和激励机制的相容性,完善应对气候变化法律体系,增强规划可行性与约束力,构建激励相容的长效机制,确保地方层面低碳政策设计和执行的综合性、稳定性和持续性。

       

      Abstract: As a pioneer in achievingthe goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China's low-carbon pilot project has made an active exploration for the country's low-carbon development transition. Most of the existing studies have confirmed the positive effects of the low-carbon pilot project, but some of them have also pointed out the dilemmas of the low-carbon pilots. As the low-carbon pilot project comes to an end and China moves towards its goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this paper conducts a re-evaluation of the low-carbon status and carbon emissions reduction trends of the low-carbon pilots. The findings suggest that the results of the three low-carbon pilots may not be as positive as most evaluation studies suggest, and that the low-carbon pilots as a whole have not yet achieved significant low-carbon status and carbon emissions reduction trends. Only the first and second batches of low-carbon pilots, which started in 2010 and 2012, showed carbon emissions reduction trends, but they still did not enter a low-carbon state; while the third batch of low-carbon pilots, which started in 2017, did not show significant effects in terms of carbon emissions reduction trends and low-carbon states. In the phase of policy experimentation, the lack of guidance from higher-level laws, master plans and accounting systems, and compatible incentive mechanisms has challenged the effectiveness of low-carbon development. At the stage of moving towards the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the central government should strengthen the compatibility of the guidance and incentive mechanisms of institutional arrangements, including improving the legal system to deal with climate change, enhancing the feasibility and binding force of planning, and building a long-term mechanism with compatible incentives to ensure the comprehensive, stable and sustainable policy making and implementation of low-carbon development at the local level.

       

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