重大突发公共卫生事件背景下政策响应速度差异研究——基于283个城市复工复产政策的事件史分析

    Research on Differences in Policy Response Speed under the Background of Major Public Health Emergencies——Event History Analysis Based on Policies for Resumption of Work and Production in 283 Cities

    • 摘要: 危机情境中的政策响应速度,是政策扩散研究的重要议题。运用事件史分析方法中的Cox风险比例回归模型,整合形成“组织-制度作用路径”“政策行动者作用路径”“政策适配属性作用路径”和“问题-能力作用路径”的研究框架和假设,结合中国283个城市复工复产政策响应的数据,深刻分析了危机情境中政策响应速度的影响因素。研究发现:(1)从时间维度上看,复工复产政策的响应扩散是一种典型的政策爆发现象,呈现出显著的R型曲线扩散特征;(2)领导者学历、城市工业企业拥有量和病患治愈能力与政策响应速度之间呈正相关,对政策响应速度起到了显著的“加速效应”;(3)纵向层级压力、横向区域压力、地方问责力度、疫情形势严峻程度和城市经济发达程度则表现出显著的“迟滞效应”,即延缓了城市的政策响应速度;(4)领导者年龄与政策响应速度之间不具有显著的相关关系。危机情境中政策响应速度影响因素的分析,为进一步理解政策扩散速度提供了实证数据基础,在一定程度上拓展了政策扩散研究的理论边界。

       

      Abstract: The speed of policy response in crisis situations is an important topic of research on policy diffusion. Using the COX proportional hazards model in the method of event history analysis, collating into a research framework and assumption of "impact path of organization- institution" "impact path of policy actors" "impact path of policy adaptation attribute" and "impact path of problem-capacity", combining the data of 283 cities across the country on the policy response to the resumption of work and production, this paper deeply analyzes the factors that affect the speed of policy response in crisis scenarios. The research found: (1) From the perspective of time, the response and diffusion of the policy of resumption of work and production is a typical phenomenon of policy outbreaks, showing a significant characteristic of R-shaped curve diffusion; (2) There is a positive correlation between the education of leadership, the numbers of urban industrial manufacturers, the ability to cure patients and the speed of policy response, indicating that these factors have played a significant " acceleration effect" on the speed of policy response; (3) Significant "hysteresis effects" are shown in vertical hierarchy pressure, horizontal regional pressure, local accountability, the severity of epidemic situation and the degree of urban economic development, delaying the city′s policy response speed; (4) There is no significant correlation between the leader age and policy response speed. The analysis of the impact factors of policy response speed in crisis situations provides an empirical data basis for further understanding of policy diffusion speed, and expands the theoretical boundary of research on policy diffusion to a certain extent.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回