区域挤压:理解中国男性婚配困难的一个分析框架

    Regional Squeeze: An Analytical Framework for Understanding Men's Marriage Difficulty in China

    • 摘要: 以贵州省为例,主要选取1995年、2005年、2015年全国1%人口抽样调查资料,以及2010年第六次全国人口普查资料。描述当前中国大龄未婚男性的基本情况,讨论大龄未婚男性的婚配困难原因,构建“区域挤压”的新分析框架,考察指标包括:(1)直接的女性婚姻嫁娶迁移指标;(2)对婚配困难产生间接影响的女性务工经商或工作就业迁移指标;(3)区域挤压程度。研究指出,既有的婚姻挤压视角无法有效地解释大龄未婚男性的婚配困难问题。无论是从直接区域挤压指数、间接区域挤压指数还是综合区域挤压指数,都显示出东部沿海发达地区与西部偏远欠发达地区的双向非对称性流动,构成对贵州这类西部偏远欠发达地区严重的区域挤压,从而产生了大量未婚男性。

       

      Abstract: Taking Guizhou province as an example, this research selects the 1995, 2005, 2015 1% National Population Sample Survey Data, and 2010 The Sixth National Census Data to describe the status quo of marriage difficulties of older unmarried men or bachelors in China. This research constructs a new analysis framework "regional squeeze" to discuss the causes to marriage difficulties of older unmarried men or bachelors. The analysis indicators include: (1) direct female marriage migration; (2) women's migration from work to business or work and employment which has an indirect impact on marriage difficulties; (3) degree of regional squeeze. This paper holds that the existing marriage squeeze perspective cannot effectively explain how the difficulty of matchmaking of older unmarried men or bachelors is formed. Under constructing the framework, the paper finds all of the indexes, the direct regional squeeze index, indirect regional squeeze index or comprehensive regional squeeze index, can reflect the severe squeeze of developed areas along the eastern coast to the remote and underdeveloped areas of western China. As a result, there are a large number of unmarried men or bachelors in the remote and underdeveloped areas of the western China just like Guizhou.

       

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