我国“十四五”时期的人口变动及重大“转变”

    China's Population Changes and Major Transition During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

    • 摘要: 利用人口预测方法估算中国“十四五”期间的人口规模和结构变动,并总结了其中的四大重要“转变”。人口规模变动呈现“四降三升”态势,人口总量保持增长,老年人口增速加快,年均死亡人口规模继续提升,但劳动年龄人口、少儿人口、育龄期女性人口、年均出生人口继续下降;从人口结构变动来说,少儿人口和劳动年龄人口比例双双下降,老年人口比例不断提升,人口老龄化由“底部”驱动转为“顶部”驱动主导,人口抚养比保持低位,但性别比失衡的问题正向适婚年龄段传导。人口结构出现的重大“转变”将对社会经济发展产生深远影响,包括即将到来的人口负增长、老龄化进程的加速、婚育观念的交织、劳动力的“质”“量”转变。为应对中国人口变动,提出必须从生育权利、养老保障、经济转型、社会体制等方面进行战略储备。

       

      Abstract: Understanding and mastering the population changes during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is of great reference value to the implementation of China's social and economic policies. This paper predicts the population size and structural changes during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and summarizes the four transitions. The total population keeps increasing, the growth rate of the elderly population accelerates, and the average annual death population continues to increase, but the working age population, children, female population of childbearing age and average annual birth continue to decline. From the perspective of population structure change, the proportion of children and working age population both decreases, the proportion of elderly continues to increase, and the driving of population aging change from bottom to top, the dependency ratio remains low, but the imbalance of gender ratio is transmitted to the marriageable age group. The major transition of population will have a profound impact on social and economic development, including the coming negative growth of population, the acceleration of aging process, the interweaving of marriage and childbearing concepts, and the quality and quantity changes of labor force. In order to cope with population changes, strategic measures must be carried out from reproductive rights, pension security, economic transformation and social system.

       

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