金融结构、产业结构与经济波动的内在关联性研究——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

    Internal Relationship Among Financial Structure, Industrial Structure and Economic Fluctuation: A Study Based on Province-Level Panel Data

    • 摘要: 研究了金融结构、产业结构的相互作用对经济波动的理论机理,以及由此对经济波动产生的影响效应,结果显示,无论是国家层面还是区域层面,增强金融结构的市场主导性有利于减缓宏观经济的波动幅度;伴随经济发展的升级,从第一产业向第二、第三产业的产业结构调整,有助于熨平经济周期的波纹;中国现阶段银行主导型的金融结构与第二产业发展相匹配,对经济波动具有一定的缓冲效应;金融结构与第三产业发展不相适应,对经济发展中的波动性具有顺周期性效应。指出进一步加强直接融资市场的建设,适应中国经济转型和经济结构的调整,对于降低经济的波动性,具有重要意义。

       

      Abstract: This paper studies the theoretical mechanism and practical effect of the interaction between financial structure and industrial structure on economic fluctuation. The results are listed as follows. Firstly, no matter in the national level or in the regional level, strengthening the degree of financial structure of the market dominant can slow down the economic fluctuation. Secondly, with the upgrading of economic development, the adjustment of industrial structure from the primary industry to the secondary and tertiary industry is conducive to ironing out the ripples of economic cycle. Thirdly, the matches between the financial structure dominated by banking and the development of the secondary industry, have a certain buffer effect on economic fluctuation. However, the dis-matches between the financial structure and the development of the tertiary industry, have a pro-cyclical effect on the volatility of economic development. Therefore, it is significant to strengthen the construction of direct financing market in adapting to China's economic transformation and the adjustment of economic structure, so as to reduce economic volatility.

       

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