中国专利密集型产业2030增长预测及高质量发展思路

    China's Patent-intensive Industry Growth Forecast in 2030 and High-quality Development Ideas

    • 摘要: 专利密集型产业的制高点是标准和人力资本,推动专利密集型产业发展是经济高质量发展的重要抓手,在分析现有统计数据的基础上,对中国专利密集型产业的增加值增长趋势进行了预测。结果表明,到2020年,中国专利密集型产业占国内生产总值的比重会达到12.7%~12.9%,2030年达到14.2%~17.2%。认为如果在2018至2025年连续实施刺激政策,到2020年,专利密集型产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重则会达到14.6%~14.9%,2030年可能会达到19.6%~23.6%,中国将成为知识产权中等强国。基于此,提出了发展高质量专利密集型产业的具体思路,强调专利密集型产业生产率高,增长速度快,是推动中国经济增长的一股崭新动能,预示着中国经济结构优化升级的新方向。

       

      Abstract: The Key of patent-intensive is standards and human capitals. Promoting the development of patent-intensive industries is an important grasp of high-quality economic development. On the basis of detailed analysis of the existing statistical data, this paper forecasts the growth trend of value-added of patent-intensive industries in China. The results show that by 2020, the proportion of patent-intensive industries to GDP may reach 12.7%~12.9%, and by 2030 it may reach 14.2%~17.2%. If the stimulus policy is implemented continuously from 2018 to 2025, the proportion of added value of patent-intensive industries in GDP will probably reach 14.6% to 14.9% in 2020 and 19.6% to 23.6% in 2030. At that time, China will become a medium power in intellectual property. Hence basing on it, the specific ideas have been designed, the high productivity and fast growth of patent-intensive industries are a brand-new momentum to promote China's economic growth, which indicates a new direction for the optimization and upgrading of China's economic structure.

       

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