Abstract: To address the difficulty in constructing an accurate mechanism model between the manipulated variables and the exhaust emissions in the municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) process, a modeling and analysis method of exhaust emissions using whole-process simulation mechanism data is proposed. First, based on the description of the process flow oriented to manipulated variables and exhaust emissions, three numerical simulation software, FLIC, Fluent and Aspen Plus, were coupled to simulate the whole-process, and a numerical simulation model under benchmark condition was established. Then, the simulation mechanism data under various conditions were obtained by the orthogonal experiment and implement. Finally, an exhaust emission model based on multiple-input multiple-output least regression decision tree was constructed, and the mapping relationship was analyzed by the single/double factor method. The numerical simulation and data-driven model of a Beijing MSWI plant are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.